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A Verdict that Never Meant Anything: South China Sea

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Philippines appealed to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, Hague (PCA) against China’s aggressive expansion in the South China Sea. The South China Sea is a marginal sea that is part of the Pacific Ocean encompassing an area from the Kurimata and Malacca Straits to the Strait of Malacca of around 3500000 square kilometres. The verdict by the tribunal court however, has done everything but the intended arbitration.

China mapped a 9 dash line on the region and claimed as much as 90% of the region that is claimed by 6 other countries (Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and Japan). For starters, this line cuts through and through Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone granted to it by the UN Law of the Sea. The area under dispute oversees almost half of the world trade which amounts to a staggering $4.5 trillion. In addition to that, the disputed area is rich in hydrocarbons and is said to contain large reserves of oil and natural gas.

Barring the economic importance, there are military reasons for China’s claim as well. Since the cultural revolution, China has undergone a massive change. Its high military and infrastructure spending since the late 80s has turned China into a global power and put it in level with US. It has become imperative for the country to dominate in the East weighing the scale with the American military dominance in the West. In order to do so, China must overshadow major players in the east: Japan, Russia and India. Gaining control over the South China Sea delineates this display of military power. In fact, out of the three countries, Russia supports China’s claims in the region and India does not oppose it due to reasons which are discussed below. This means the only oppositIon is US backed Japan.

China has also stated that- “The activities of the Chinese people in the South China Sea date back to over 2,000 years ago. China is the first to have discovered, named, and explored and exploited Nanhai Zhudao and relevant waters, and the first to have exercised sovereignty and jurisdiction over them continuously, peacefully and effectively, thus establishing territorial sovereignty and relevant rights and interests in the South China Sea,” which builds China’s base in claiming the territory on cultural and historic terms.

It is imperative to study US’s involvement in the region. The US adopted its ‘pivot to Asia’ policy in the mid 90s. The ring of fire has only increased since adaptation of this foreign policy with heavy mobilization of navy fleets into the Pacific. US feels the need to check the Chinese and North Korean military power. It feels that China, North Korea’s diplomatic supporter, cannot be allowed to dominate. In recent past, US has conducted joint military exercises with Japan and South Korea. US has placed two aircraft carriers in the disputed region claiming that it can do so under ‘freedom of navigation operations’.

China has responded by land reclamation in highly sensitive region of Scarborough Islands which it gained in 2012. These Islands are about 500 km from China and 100 km from the Philippines.

The United States is replicating its Caribbean policy in which it targeted countries such as Cuba, Nicaragua, and Colombia for regional dominance and economic exploitation. In all of the countries mentioned above, US invaded the countries through mercenaries and toppled governments claiming that the countries were a threat to American sovereignty and peace. George H.W. Bush administration sent an army of 26,000 to Panama on Dec 20, 1989 in the name of “protecting American lives there from political instability.” However, China is no Colombia or Nicaragua and the Americans know it well. Plus the fight and US intervention extends beyond the mere economic benefits to ideological differences and global dominance. It is important to note that more than 60 countries and international organizations, as well as over 130 foreign political parties and groups, have voiced support for China’s principled position in the South China Sea far outnumbering those who back the assertions of the US backed Philippines.

China has abnegated the Hague verdict claiming that the court’s decision does not span into matters which directly pose a threat to China’s sovereignty. China has also stated that the 5 member judge judge committee that gave the decision consisted of a Japanese judge. They said that the decision was biased since Japan has vested interests in the verdict.

The Chinese, however, have to think before they act for a number of reasons. This is the first time that China has been brought before an international court and has been accused of serious crimes such as destroying coral reefs and infringing on Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone. As an aspiring superpower, China cannot come across as a bully just yet. It needs to gather support from countries around the world and openly criticizing and flaunting the Hague verdict will do anything but make neighbours feel comfortable.

The situation has brought forward some questions for India. However, there is much reason to believe that India will remain a passive participant in the South China Sea. India’s military forces are currently occupied with a number of internal and border conflicts. In addition to that, India does not gain anything directly by investing time and resources in the South China Sea. As far as India is concerned, there are a number of countries investing in the region to make sure that no particular country dominates.

Another reason why India is not opposing China openly by participating in USA’s military exercises is because of ‘freedom of navigation operations’. US has positioned its aircraft carriers under the freedom of navigation operations; a policy which India does not preach. India, while signing UNCLOS, made the declaration: ‘The Government of the Republic of India understands that the provisions of the Convention do not authorize other States to carry out in the exclusive economic zone and on the continental shelf military exercises or manoeuvres, in particular those involving the use of weapons or explosives without the consent of the coastal State’.

India’s expanding navy around its borders signal towards the country wanting to increase its presence in maritime security. If it supports US today, it will have a tough time overpowering foreign navy in Indian waters under the freedom of navigation operations. Joining the US in demonstrating freedom of military navigation could turn controversial for India.

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