The Election commission’s suggestion to disqualify the 20 MLAs comes at a time when AAP will complete three years in power in February. Interestingly, it comes in a year when the entire country is preparing for the 2019 parliamentary elections. Delhi will become a testing ground for BJP and Congress to witness whether their traditional voters choose AAP or return to their fold. The Delhi assembly election will be held in 2020.
The 20 MLAs, who are recommended by the EC to disqualify, are some of Arvind Kejriwal’s strongest players. The areas each MLAs represent hold a demographic diversity that could create a bellwether election. If the MLAs are disqualified as per EC’s recommendation, EC may hold a bypoll within six months of the vacancies created.
The 20 seats in question are an intriguing mix which reflects the vibrant nature of a city evolving from Old Delhi to a hub of refugees pouring in post-Partition. Now it has become a melting pot of migrants from all over the country.
The assemblies have within their folds have slums, unauthorised colonies, villages and upscale pockets. Large pockets of voters come under the low-income section, however, there is a large mass of middle-class residents too who are ready to be swayed.
Narela, situated in the far north-west, is dominated by JJ clusters, unauthorised colonies and villages. It would be interesting to watch if a poll battle is contested here since the low-income settlements, who chose AAP, had voted for Congress in the past. Likewise, to the north is Burari, where unauthorised colonies and rural pockets exist. Now the area is represented by AAP’s Sanjeev Jha. If a by-poll is contested, the pro-poor measures promised by Kejriwal in his 70-point plan will be put to test.
‘Office of profit’: How things stand across India
The assembly seat of Chandni Chowk, which is the heart of the capital, is held by Alka Lamba now. The seat was once Congress bastion. Here, the Muslim vote holds importance. It will be a crucial seat for assessing the mood of the minority community and the redevelopment of the Walled City area which Lamba had been pointing under the Shahjahanabad Development Board. Sadar Bazar, held by Som Dutt, who defeated Congress candidate Ajay Maken in 2015, is where AAP’s mettle will be tested in a significant low-income pocket.
While West Delhi’s middle class, too, play a vital role in the bypolls. Areas like Janakpuri, Tilak Nagar and Rajinder Nagar have middle income, upscale and poor voters. Punjabi and Sikh votes control in some pockets. Down South, two other assembly constituencies with a similar mix are Kalkaji and Jangpura.
Down south-west, Dwarka is where Kejriwal’s most trusted IT parliamentary secretary, Adarsh Shastri, is the man in the seat.
Moving to further down south are Mehrauli’s villages and upscale belts of Vasant Kunj and Saket. Kondli is the only reserved seat and it will be an intriguing battle as the party had won all the 12 reserved seats in 2015.
Laxmi Nagar and Gandhi Nagar is a melange of middle class and traders. So it will be crucial for AAP, for the party has been working hard to impress traders through VAT rationalisation till last year and is now aiding a transition to GST.
When some MLAs arrived the Delhi high court on Friday evening, Sanjeev Jha from Burari and Sarita Singh from Rohtas Nagar have strongly claimed that they received no perks or money as parliamentary secretaries. They even challenged the BJP and Congress to prove them wrong.
Laxmi Nagar MLA Nitin Tyagi said, “We are ready to accept any judgment of the Election Commission provided the EC gives us an opportunity to present our sides before it. We want discussions on the merit of the office of profit.” Naresh Yadav from Mehrauli said, “none of the MLAs was given an opportunity for a personal hearing. It violates all principles of justice”.
Alka Lamba from Chandni Chowk argues, “the LG did not sign on the appointment of the parliamentary secretaries and hence a case of the office of profit does not arise”.