Washington DC: A key agency in the US issued a severe geomagnetic storm warning on Thursday. This marks the first such alert in nearly two decades which can impact various electronic systems on Earth.
When the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) noticed a strong solar storm developing in orbit, it issued an alert. The alert, which was categorized as a Severe G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch, highlighted the possible threats to vital infrastructure, such as satellite operations, communication networks, and power grids. The agency claims that this incident may potentially interfere with electrical gadgets like GPS.
Geomagnetic Storm Alert
“NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) — a division of the National Weather Service — is monitoring the sun following a series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that began on May 8. Space weather forecasters have issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for the evening of Friday, May 10. Additional solar eruptions could cause geomagnetic storm conditions to persist through the weekend,” the SWPC said in a press statement.
Since May 8, many Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) have been seen, which has caused NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to increase its level of alertness. US authorities have emphasized that there’s a chance that interruptions would continue into the weekend. “A large sunspot cluster has produced several moderate to strong solar flares since Wednesday at 5:00 am ET. At least five flares were associated with CMEs that appear to be Earth-directed. SWPC forecasters will monitor NOAA and NASA’s space assets for the onset of a geomagnetic storm,” the statement added.
Geomagnetic Storms caused by CMEs directed towards Earth pose significant risks to infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and the planet’s surface. Beyond just technical difficulties, NOAA’s warning highlighted the possibility of significant effects on satellite, radio, and navigation systems. Potential internet disruptions are a worry since they are a vital component of the contemporary communication infrastructure.
“CMEs are explosions of plasma and magnetic fields from the sun’s corona. They cause geomagnetic storms when they are directed at Earth. Geomagnetic storms can impact infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and on Earth’s surface, potentially disrupting communications, the electric power grid, navigation, radio, and satellite operations,” the US agency said.
Despite the impending danger, NOAA guaranteed that safeguards were in place and that operators of systems that were at risk were informed to take the necessary safety procedures. Nonetheless, the organization recognized the possibility of aesthetically remarkable auroras, which could be observable in areas as far south as Alabama and Northern California.
This event goes back to a similar event which happened in January 2005, when Earth experienced the highest radiation in five decades due to a severe geomagnetic storm, according to The Daily Mail. The rapid onset of this storm, peaking within just 15 minutes, caught scientists off guard and caused widespread disruptions to communication systems.
As the sun nears the peak of activity in its 11-year cycle, known as solar maximum, later this year, researchers have observed increasingly intense solar flares erupting from the fiery orb. When the energized particles from coronal mass ejections reach Earth’s magnetic field, they interact with gases in the atmosphere to create different colored light in the sky.
Since Wednesday, the Space Weather Prediction Center has monitored several powerful flares coming from a sizable sunspot cluster on the surface of the sun. The cluster is sixteen times larger than Earth’s diameter. At least five coronal mass ejections, or massive clouds of ionized gas known as plasma and magnetic fields that erupt from the sun’s outer atmosphere and release toward Earth, have been seen by scientists. It is anticipated that these major eruptions would start on Friday at noon and last until Sunday.
The forecasters wont know the true intensity of the storm until it arrives about 1 million miles from the earth, reaching satellites who monitor space weather which is estimated to happen at about 8 p.m. ET Friday, said Shawn Dahl, the service coordinator for the Space Weather Prediction Center.
The center’s space weather scale covers three categories: solar flares that cause high-frequency radio blackouts, geomagnetic storms and solar radiation storms. The current solar activity is capable of producing a solar radiation storm, according to the center. The peak of the Geomagnetic storm activity for Earth could occur between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m. ET on Saturday, the center has forecasted.
Recently, solar-driven geomagnetic storms have made auroras visible in regions that often don’t view them, such as the southeast of England and other parts of the United Kingdom and as far south as New Mexico, Missouri, North Carolina, and California in the United States.
Effects of geomagnetic storm
When directed towards the Earth these ejections can cause geomagnetic storms or major disturbances of the Earth’s magnetic field. “Geomagnetic storms can impact infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and on Earth’s surface, potentially disrupting communications, the electric power grid, navigation, radio and satellite operations,” according to the Space Weather Prediction Center. “(The center) has notified the operators of these systems so they can take protective action.”
Solar storms produced by the sun can potentially result in radio blackouts and could endanger crewed space missions. The Space Radiation Analysis Group of NASA is tasked with keeping an eye on the living circumstances of astronauts stationed at the International Space Station. The astronauts can relocate to more radiation-shielded areas of the station if there seems to be a greater risk of radiation exposure.
Till now researchers have observed only three severe geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle, which began in December 2019, according to the center. In October 2003, there was an intense geomagnetic storm known as a G5, which caused damage to power transformers in South Africa and power outages in Sweden.
Tracking Space Weather
Every 11 years the sun experiences periods of high and low solar activity. This is associated with the amount of sunspots on its surface. The sun’s strong and constantly shifting magnetic fields drive these dark regions, some of which can reach the size of Earth or larger.
Over the duration of the solar cycle, the sun will transition from a calm to an intense and active period. During the peak of activity, called solar maximum, the sun’s magnetic poles flip. The sun will thereafter go quiet once more during a solar minimum. The sun is predicted to reach its solar maximum in mid- to late-2024, but it will continue to be active for a few years beyond that.
When the sun is most likely to release solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other space weather that could have an impact on Earth is determined by teams at the Space Weather Prediction Center using information from ground and space-based observatories, magnetic maps of the solar surface, and ultraviolet observations of the sun’s outer atmosphere. Because solar flares damage Earth’s ionosphere, or section of the upper atmosphere, they can have an instantaneous impact on communications and GPS.
Without the right protection, energetic particles from the sun can damage spacecraft equipment and have an impact on humans in as little as 20 to several hours. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can send material hurtling away from the sun at high speeds. CMEs can arrive at Earth 30 to 72 hours later, triggering geomagnetic storms that disrupt satellite communications and produce upper atmosphere electrical currents that can travel through the earth and disrupt power systems.
Commercial aircraft are advised to avoid flying near Earth’s poles during geomagnetic storms owing to communication or navigational disruptions. The storms also have an impact on the flight patterns of these airlines. There have been extreme storms in the past, as the Carrington Event of 1859 and the one that brought down the Quebec power grid in 1989.The latter is still the strongest geomagnetic storm on record, sparking and catching fire at telegraph stations.
If such an event were to occur today, it could cause trillions of dollars’ worth of damage and bring down some power grids for a substantial amount of time.
