New Delhi: India could face its weakest monsoon in more than a decade as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 60% probability of deficient rainfall. If realised, it would be the driest monsoon since 2015.
The warning comes as global agencies, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), forecast an 82% chance of El Nino developing between May and July, rising to 96% by winter. Scientists fear the event could strengthen into a rare “Super El Nino,” similar to those recorded in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
Experts say the greater concern is not only reduced rainfall but its uneven distribution, delayed onset and prolonged dry spells during critical crop-growth stages. Nearly 52% of India’s cultivated land depends on rainfall, making agriculture particularly vulnerable. Analysts warn lower yields of rice, pulses and oilseeds could also push up food prices.
A weak monsoon may further strain groundwater, reservoirs and rivers, increasing competition for water among farms, cities and industries. While a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could partially offset El Nino’s impact, current forecasts suggest it is unlikely to provide significant relief.
Meteorologists also warn that the developing El Nino could contribute to record global temperatures, with 2027 potentially becoming the warmest year on record.
