The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday projected a “below normal” southwest monsoon for 2026, forecasting rainfall at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.
The outlook raises concerns for India’s agriculture sector and rural economy, which remain heavily dependent on seasonal rains.
According to IMD, the LPA for seasonal rainfall over the country during 1971–2020 is 87 cm. The spatial distribution of rainfall suggests that most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, except for some regions in the northeast, northwest, and southern peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.
The forecast comes with significant economic implications, as monsoon rains are crucial for India’s agriculture sector. Nearly 51 per cent of the country’s cropped area is rain-fed, contributing around 40 per cent of total agricultural production.
With almost 47 per cent of India’s population dependent on agriculture for livelihood, a weak monsoon could impact rural consumption and push food prices higher.
IMD officials noted that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon months, particularly in the second half of the season, which typically suppresses rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. At present, weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning toward neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
The agency also said neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail, with a possibility of positive IOD conditions developing later in the monsoon season. Officials added that winter and spring snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere remains marginally favourable for rainfall, but not enough to offset other adverse factors.
IMD Secretary M. Ravichandran said overall conditions indicate a below-normal monsoon, with the impact expected to be more pronounced in the second half of the season, while June and July may see relatively stable rainfall.
The statistical model by IMD places a 35 per cent probability of a deficient monsoon, a 31 per cent chance of below normal rainfall, and only a 1 per cent probability of excess rainfall.
