New Delhi: Amid growing concerns over an economic slowdown triggered by rising crude oil prices, currency depreciation and tensions linked to the US-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, there appears to be positive news on the weather front as the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive early over Kerala this year.
According to the India Meteorological Department, the monsoon is likely to make its onset over Kerala around May 26, with a model error margin of ±4 days. If the forecast proves accurate, this would mark the third consecutive year of an early monsoon arrival in the country. The monsoon reached Kerala on May 27 in 2025 and May 31 in 2024, while the normal onset date is June 1.
🌧️ Southwest Monsoon 2026 Update 🌴
IMD forecasts the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala around 26th May 2026 (± 4 days).
The operational forecast has shown high accuracy over the past 21 years.☔ Stay tuned for timely weather updates and monsoon progress across the… pic.twitter.com/iing4kWKhI
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) May 15, 2026
The IMD stated that weather conditions are currently favourable for the advance of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands within the next 24 hours. Typically, the monsoon first advances over the South Andaman Sea around May 22 before gradually progressing towards mainland India.
Despite optimism surrounding the early onset, weather forecasts for the rest of the country remain mixed. The IMD has warned that severe heatwave conditions are likely to persist over northwest and central India during the ongoing week. At the same time, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected across northeastern states and parts of southern India, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka over the next three to four days.
The June-to-September monsoon season remains crucial for India’s economy as it contributes more than 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall and directly affects agriculture, reservoir levels and water availability.
However, the IMD’s seasonal outlook projects below-normal rainfall this year at about 92 per cent of the Long Period Average, with a model error margin of ±5 per cent. Meteorologists noted that weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning towards ENSO-neutral conditions, while climate models suggest possible El Niño development later during the season.
Analysts added that the likelihood of positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions later in the monsoon season could help support rainfall activity across the country.
