Meteorological conditions have become favourable for the further advancement of the Southwest monsoon across India, the government’s weather office, IMD, said in an update on Friday.
Some additional parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha are expected to receive monsoon rains over the next two days, while other parts of Gujarat, West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar are forecasted to receive monsoon rains over the subsequent three days, according to the IMD.
Additionally, the monsoon is likely to be in an active phase, with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>20 cm/24 hours) at isolated places over south peninsular India, including Konkan and Goa, during June 13-17, 2025. On the other hand, heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are likely to continue over Northwest India including Western Himalayan Region during next 2 days and reduce thereafter. Heat wave conditions prevailed at many places, with severe heat wave conditions at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, and West Rajasthan.
Heatwave conditions were also observed at many places over Punjab, at some parts of East Rajasthan, and at isolated places over Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and East Madhya Pradesh. The Southwest monsoon rainfall over India had stalled for two weeks after the early onset this year. The southwest monsoon hit Kerala on May 24, a week earlier than usual, marking its earliest arrival on the Indian mainland since 2009. The normal onset date for the southwest monsoon is June 1. May 2025 was the wettest since 1901 in India, with the country receiving an average rainfall of 126.7 mm last month. The early onset of the southwest monsoon brought continuous rainfall across southern and eastern India, contributing to this record.
After an early onset, the progress of monsoon had stalled, reportedly on May 29, only to be active starting today, as has been updated by the state-run weather office. Monsoons are a key indicator that helps analysts gauge the economic outlook of the country’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
The IMD forecast southwest monsoon rainfall over India to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average. This projection is more than the 105 per cent forecast in the April update. The long-period average rainfall in India is 868.6 mm. The IMD stated that above-normal rainfall is most likely to occur over the country as a whole during the 2025 monsoon season (June to September). Region wise, the southwest monsoon rainfall is projected to be above normal over Central India and South Peninsular India (>106 per cent of Long Period Average), normal over Northwest India (92-108 per cent of Long Period Average) and below normal over Northeast India (<94% of LPA).><94 per cent of Long Period Average). The state-owned weather office stated that the country’s average rainfall in June is most likely to be above normal (more than 108 per cent of the Long Period Average). The state-owned weather office stated that the country’s average rainfall in June is most likely to be above normal (more than 108 per cent of the Long Period Average). The monsoon has onset early on two occasions during the past five years –2022 and 2024. In 2022 and 2024, the monsoon onset was May 29 and May 30, as per IMD data. IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards.
The monsoon has onset early on two occasions during the past five years –2022 and 2024. In 2022 and 2024, the monsoon onset was May 29 and May 30, as per IMD data. IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. IMD’s operational forecasts of the monsoon onset date over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) were correct except in 2015. Forecast verification for the recent 5 years (2020-2024) is in the table below.
Above-normal monsoon rains help farmers to sow more crops this Kharif season, which bodes well for the overall agriculture sector. Agriculture is the mainstay source of livelihoods for millions of Indians. Traditionally, Indian agriculture, especially the Kharif season, relies heavily on monsoon rainfall.
