India’s population is expected to reach 1.46 billion by 2025, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) latest ‘State of World Population’ report. While the country remains the most populous globally, the report highlights an ongoing demographic shift, marked by a decline in fertility rates and an increase in life expectancy.
Titled ‘The Real Fertility Crisis’, the 2025 edition notes that India’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. The replacement rate refers to the average number of children that each woman would need to have to maintain a stable population size in the absence of migration.
Rather than focusing on concerns around population growth or decline, the UNFPA report argues that limited reproductive choice is a more pressing issue. It states that millions of people around the world are unable to realise their reproductive goals due to a lack of access to services, information, or autonomy.
India’s population remains relatively young. According to the report, 24% of the population is aged 0–14, while 26% fall within the 10–24 age range. Additionally, 68% of the population is in the working-age group of 15–64. The report suggests this could represent a demographic advantage if supported by employment, education, and social protection policies.
The elderly population, defined as those aged 65 and older, currently comprises 7% of the total and is projected to increase in the coming decades. Life expectancy at birth in 2025 is estimated at 71 years for men and 74 years for women.
The report also provides historical context. In 1960, when India’s population was around 436 million, women had an average of nearly six children. At that time, fewer than 25% used any form of contraception, and fewer than half attended primary school. Since then, improvements in access to education and reproductive healthcare have contributed to a steady decline in fertility.
Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative, noted that India’s fertility rate has fallen from approximately five children per woman in 1970 to around two today. She attributed this shift to better access to reproductive services and education. Wojnar also noted that while maternal mortality has decreased, inequalities across regions, income groups, and social categories remain.
India is classified as a middle-income country experiencing rapid demographic change. The population doubling time is now estimated at 79 years. The report stresses the need to prioritise reproductive rights and ensure individuals can make informed decisions about starting or growing their families.
Rather than focusing on controlling population numbers, the report concludes, efforts should be directed toward ensuring access to choices and services that support reproductive health and autonomy.
