On the last trading day of June, Indian stock markets opened flat on Monday, supported by positive global cues and receding geopolitical clouds. The Nifty 50 index opened at 25,661.65, gaining 23.85 points or 0.09 per cent.
On the other hand, the BSE Sensex opened slightly lower at 84,027.33, down by 31.57 points or 0.04 per cent. Experts noted that several key developments are driving the positive mood in global markets. Geopolitical tensions are easing, and recent trade deals are helping boost market confidence.
In the United States, progress on Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate is also seen as a big positive. Ajay Bagga, Banking and Market Expert, told ANI, “Receding geopolitical clouds and tailwinds from trade deals as well as progress on Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill in the US Senate are setting up a risk-on rally in global markets”.
Additionally, expectations of higher oil production from the OPEC+ group are keeping oil prices in check. A weaker US dollar is further supporting capital flows into emerging markets, such as India. Traders are also closely monitoring interest rates. The US OIS curves now show a more than 90 per cent chance of a rate cut in September, and another rate cut by December 2025. Also supporting market sentiment are recent US Supreme Court judgments that have reduced lower courts’ ability to delay Trump’s policy actions.
However, the July 9th tariff deadline remains an important event to watch. Still, the experts added that markets are optimistic, expecting trade deals with over 12 major partners and understandings on a general 10 per cent tariff and sectoral tariffs.
Bagga said, “Of course, the July 9th tariff deadline looms large, but markets are factoring in rough and ready trade deals with over 12 major partners before that and understandings with most countries on the basis of a universal 10 per cent tariff and sectoral tariffs”.
Taking cues from record highs on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, Asian markets were also up in morning trade. Indian trade negotiation team extending its stay in the US to finalise a draft trade deal. In broader indices, the Nifty 100 opened flat with a 0.05 per cent gain. Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.47 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 0.57 per cent. Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank led the gains, rising over 1 per cent. Nifty IT gained 0.04 per cent, Nifty Media was up 0.46 per cent, Nifty Metals added 0.09 per cent, and Nifty Consumer Durables rose 0.38 per cent.
Sunil Gurjar, SEBI-registered research analyst and founder of Alphamojo Financial Services, said, “Nifty’s recent breakout from a 31-day narrow consolidation phase, observed on Thursday’s monthly expiry, has led market bulls to project a new all-time high in the near term. This bullish outlook is substantiated by factors such as ongoing FII purchases, an encouraging global macroeconomic backdrop, an 11 per cent weekly plummet in crude oil prices, and July’s established pattern of bullish seasonality. Overall, with strong global cues and progress on trade talks, the Indian market appears to be in the early stages of a steady upward rally.
