Washington, DC: Any reset in India-China ties is a positive development. But calling it a reset does not mean the two countries have stopped being strategic rivals. For now, the relationship is best described as a “diplomatic situationship”— one in which both sides see value in engagement while remaining deeply wary of each other’s strategic intentions.
China has resolved border disputes with almost all of its neighbors, with India and Bhutan being notable exceptions. That, in itself, underlines the complexity of the relationship between Beijing and New Delhi. The differences are not limited to the disputed border. They extend to technology, artificial intelligence, manufacturing and the contest for influence across the region.
The economic competition is becoming increasingly important. As global companies look to diversify supply chains and shift manufacturing away from China, India is emerging as a major alternative. This creates another layer of strategic competition between the two countries.
Trust Remains the Biggest Challenge
The events surrounding the Galwan Valley clash and China’s continued support for Pakistan remain major concerns for India. These issues cannot simply be set aside in the interest of improving bilateral ties.
The trust deficit is also difficult to ignore. China’s recent conduct toward the Philippines is a reminder of Beijing’s increasingly assertive approach to territorial and strategic disputes in the region. For India, this raises a fundamental question: Can Beijing’s words be trusted without corresponding changes in its actions?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invested considerable political capital in managing the relationship with China. Yet, the strategic reciprocity from President Xi Jinping has not always been comparable.
At the same time, the turbulence in the global order makes it important for India and China to find areas where their interests converge. Better bilateral ties could contribute to greater strategic stability at a time when geopolitical tensions are rising across multiple fronts.
BRICS and the Balancing Act
The BRICS joint statement is significant in this context. India was able to ensure that its position on terrorism found space in the declaration, despite the possibility of reservations from China. This demonstrates that New Delhi can engage Beijing while firmly protecting its core strategic interests.
India’s continued coordination meetings and military exercises with the United States also remain an important part of this broader strategic picture. Engagement with China does not mean stepping away from other partnerships.
The reality is that rebuilding trust with China will be a long and difficult process. There is no quick fix for the accumulated strategic mistrust between the two countries.
The India-China relationship can improve, but the real test will not be in diplomatic statements or summit meetings. It will be in what happens on the ground.
Actions, ultimately, will determine whether this diplomatic situationship can evolve into a more stable relationship.
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