A groundbreaking study by Australian researchers has projected that a 4°C rise in global temperatures could result in a staggering 40% reduction in world GDP by the end of the century—a dramatic revision from previous estimates of just 11%. Published in Environmental Research, the findings highlight the urgent need for accelerated global climate action.
The study, conducted by the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Institute for Climate Risk and Response (ICRR), challenges traditional economic models that have long shaped climate policy. Unlike earlier research that primarily focused on localized weather impacts, this analysis incorporates the effects of global supply chain disruptions triggered by extreme weather events—fundamentally altering the economic outlook of climate change.
Lead researcher Dr. Timothy Neal, a Scientia Senior Lecturer in Economics at UNSW, pointed out that past economic models overlooked how heatwaves, floods, and storms would interrupt global trade and manufacturing networks.
The study’s findings reinforce the urgency of limiting global warming to 1.7°C, a more ambitious target than the widely debated 2.7°C threshold. Dr. Neal stressed that previous models underestimated climate change’s economic toll, inadvertently downplaying its risks.
Additionally, the research debunks the notion that certain colder countries, like Russia and Canada, could benefit from a warming climate. The study asserts that economic interdependence through global trade means that no nation is insulated from climate-induced disruptions.
While the findings present a dire outlook, the study acknowledges that further research is needed—particularly on adaptation strategies such as human migration, which remains a politically sensitive and complex factor.
