Lucknow: Understanding the labyrinth of UP politics is to encompass the complexities of Indian politics. A major trend in the UP political landscape is the changing demography – the emergence of socially aware and politically conscious youth who are demanding – looking for a change. They are fed up with the caste politics and minority politics that benefit only political parties. Instead, they are asking for jobs and better standards of living, which traditional parties cannot offer. Narendra Modi’s development plank has aspirational values that the youth are looking for as it promises a better future.
The aspirations of the youth are only one element in the complex edifice of UP politics. Caste and minority politics are as much a reality as ever. Quota within quota is an idea Congress wanted to implement to make sure of the loyalty of the minority communities. In this respect SP and Congress are two bodies in one soul while BSP maintains a measured silence. In UP, 51% of the total 126.6 million voters, is aged between18-35. But caste politics remains a key factor.
This time, the Muslim voters, a key factor in UP politics, is in a dilemma. A majority of the community, which plays a significant role in at least 40 % of state’s 80 constituencies, have backed Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) since the late 1980s. But discontent with SP government led by Akhilesh Yadav and anguish over last year’s Muzaffarnagar communal violence seem to have driven a wedge between Muslims and the ruling party.
A similar scene seems to be occurring among Dalits and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) too—mainstays of both the opposition Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and SP. Dalits are now willing to look to political parties that can help them realise their aspirations, which they say can be achieved only by addressing inequalities in education, health and, of course, jobs. While the older generation of Dalits still swears by BSP leader and former UP chief minister Mayawati, the younger lot are willing to experiment with their vote.
This sentiment, which seems to be gaining momentum among the youth, is creating an undercurrent of support for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.
While Congress seems to be putting in more efforts to save the Gandhian bastion, SP is hit by its inability to perform and provide good governance. Although Mayawati has given party tickets for the Lok Sabha election after immense scrutiny of the caste equation and the delimitation of seats and is confident to emerge as the dark horse of these elections, BJP, however, has its eyes set on the traditional caste-base of both SP and BSP, and is trying very hard to win their support in some constituencies.
UP is larger than many of the European countries and is a critical state in determining who will form the next government in Delhi. With his astute understanding of politics, Modi has appointed Amit Shah as the man in-charge of the UP campaign. With Shah’s wide experience, Modi will have no reason to regret. And for the first time in the last two decades, the voters are looking for a national party, leaving the regional parties in the lurch.
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