Your Business Planner this Week (July 30 – August 4)

The southwest monsoon continues to remain weak after what looked like a strong onset in the first two weeks of June. With overall rainfall since the beginning of the monsoon season being 5% below normal, July is also likely to close at below normal rainfall levels given a week of scanty rainfall activity in tow. July has so far recorded 5% deficit rains, a “normal deviation” according to the met office.

Macro Data This Week

• The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on July 31 and August 1 for the third bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2018-2019.
• In June RBI raised its benchmark policy repo rate unanimously by 0.25 percent to 6.25 percent after more than four years and kept the stance neutral. MPC may hike rates by 25 basis points but maintain neutrality of stance.It could adopt a wait-and-watch stance as outlook on inflation remains stable and there is uncertainty surrounding the global policy stance adopted by various central bankers. The only reason for a rate hike by the RBI at this juncture could be to stem the rupee depreciation.
• IIP data for June will be declared this week. IIP rose 3.6% in May

• Manufacturing PMI for July will be announced on Wednesday. It rose to a six-month high of 53.1 in June. Services PMI for July will be announced on Friday. It rose to 52.6 in June from 49.6 the previous month.
• The US Fed will also declare its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The rate decisions of Bank of Japan and Bank of England and central bank of Brazil will also be watched.
• US personal spending and income data for June will be released on Tuesday and jobs report on Friday.
• China’s PMIs probably edged down in July, analysts say, buffeted by a deleveraging agenda and a trade war.

Single data base mooted

A panel of experts has suggested one single database for inflation, industrial output and employment to give credibility to India’s growth numbers and improve the consistency of key statistics.