Based on the initial understanding of the spread of COVID-19 infection, the mathematical modeling done by India Council of Medical Research (ICMR) suggests that entry screening of travellers with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19, can delay the introduction of virus into the community by three days to three weeks.
Strictly implemented social distancing measures like home quarantine of symptomatics and suspected cases will reduce overall expected number of cases by 62% and the peak number of cases by 89%, thus ‘flattening’ the curve and providing more opportunities for interventions.
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These model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be further refined as more needs to be understood about the rate at which infection of this novel virus transmits among susceptible individuals.
As of Monday morning, the number of positive cases in India stands at 492, which includes 37 cured/discharged cases and nine deaths.