In the noise and chaos of Indian television newsrooms, no channel could predict Bihar’s mood in its exit polls. However, the only channel which could have laid claim to this success, but cannot, has only itself to blame.
CNN-IBN had commissioned an exit poll to be carried out by Axis Ad-Print-Media (India) Ltd.
Axis was apparently the only polling agency which carried out its exit polls in every constituency in Bihar. As a result, it came up with a ‘radical’ result.
Axis predicted 169-183 seats for the Grand Alliance, and 58-70 seats for the NDA. On Sunday night, Axis stands vindicated as its projections have hit the bull’s eye. The JD-U+ is leading in 178 seats, while BJP+ is ahead in 59.
This is not a first for Axis. It had predicted 53 seats for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, while the AAP ended up with 70.
Now, CNN-IBN reportedly did not air Axis’s findings because it felt something was ‘off’ and demanded the raw data. However, Axis refused to share the data. This led to the channel deciding not to air the findings at all, and instead go with a ‘safe’ ‘Poll of polls’.
Axis published the results independently, which created another controversy. Some feel that the company should not have published the results of the exit polls, commissioned by a private channel. This is because, some feel, the channel had the exclusive rights over the findings.
However, others feel that as long as the Axis was not bound by contractual bindings, it could do so. It is not clear what the nature of the contract between the channel and Axis was, as representatives of both remain tight-lipped.
No matter what, it was a big loss for CNN-IBN, as it gave its editorial judgment precedence over what data pointed towards.