Between February and March, voters in five states (Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa) in India cast their ballots in an election that has serious national implications. Headlining the five states is Uttar Pradesh (UP), which is home to approximately 220 million Indians, which alone would make it the world’s fifth most populated country.
State elections in India are an important affair compared to other federal democracies. They receive extensive national and in this case, international coverage. One reason is India’s parliamentary set-up. The upper house in Parliament, the Rajya Sabha, comprises representatives selected by state legislatures. The political party in power in a state is able to send its party members to the Rajya Sabha. And no state sends more representatives to Parliament than Uttar Pradesh. It accounts for 85 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (lower house, directly elected) and 31 out of 245 seats in the Rajya Sabha. While not as important as the directly elected Lok Sabha, (financial bills such as the Budget are not subject to Rajya Sabha approval), most bills require approval of both houses to become legislation. Therefore, political power in a state translates to political power in New Delhi.
Currently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and its larger coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), own a majority in the Lok Sabha. However, they remain a minority coalition in the Rajya Sabha. Legislation, including crucial reforms to labour and land acquisition laws, has been blocked or never even introduced.
However, the stakes in these elections are far more serious than parliamentary arithmetic. For starters, the election comes slightly past the mid-way point between Prime Minister Modi’s 2014 victory and the 2019 general election, and with more than a sixth of Indian voters eligible to vote, the election is being seen as a referendum on the Modi government’s policies. The most consequential of these was the demonetisation of the ₹500 ($7.48) and ₹1000 ($14.95) notes.
A win for the BJP would reaffirm Prime Minister Modi as India’s most valuable political commodity, which would help his government push through legislation in parliament. Such legislation could include crucial reforms to land acquisition and labour laws, all of which will require significant political capital. Given the scale of the election, it will also serve as a harbinger for the 2019 general election, which is a little more than two years away.
Uttar Pradesh
Of all the five states going to polls, the fight for Uttar Pradesh will be the most closely watched – not only because the outcome will have direct implications on the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the Centre but also due to the bitter family feud in Samajwadi Party.
With the father-son duo of Akhilesh and Mulayam refusing to give in, the Samajwadi Party war has been witnessing twists in a daily basis. As of now, both the factions have laid claim over the cycle symbol and the Election Commission is yet to take a call.
Opposition parties – BJP, BSP and the Congress are keeping a close watch on developments to cash on the opportunity. Speculations are that Akhilesh may go ahead to fight the polls with Congress if he decides to go ahead and part ways with father Mulayam.
Punjab
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) alliance in Punjab is facing a stiff fight in this northern state from arch rival Congress and new entrant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Poll pundits say AAP has a real chance of creating an upset in Punjab. However, the party has already seen numerous controversies in the run up to the election campaign. AAP national convener and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal tried his all to lure cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu offering him the deputy CM post, however, things didn’t materialise.
Sidhu’s wife Navjot Kaur Sidhu, who hails from Patiala contested on a BJP ticket and won in 2012, joined Congress in November last year. Her husband is yet to announce his decision. “Hum do shareer ek aatma hai, fir ek durse ke bina kab tak reh paenge? (We are two bodies one soul how can we live separately)” Kaur had said on being asked if her husband will join the party
Goa
For the BJP, retaining power in this tiny coastal state has only become tougher with the entry of AAP. With Manohar Parrikar moving to Delhi, the BJP government in Goa has witnessed several controversies under the leadership of CM Laxmikant Parsekar. BJP’s ally – Maharashtrwadi Gomnatak Party (MGP) – has been demanding Parsekar’s removal for a long time now.
MGP president Deepak Dhavalikar, also a minister in the BJP-led cabinet, had said that his party was open to contesting all the 40 Assembly seats if the alliance with the BJP breaks.
Uttarakhand
The hilly state was witness high drama in March 2016 when nine Congress MLAs switched sides and met Governor KK Paul alongwith 27 other BJP MLAs to demanding removal of CM Harish Rawat. The CM later met the Governor claiming that he has support of majority of MLAs in the 71-seat Assembly.
President’s Rule was imposed in the state a day before Rawat was to prove majority on the floor of the House on March 28. Rawat moved high court against the Centre’s decision. Ultimately, it was the Congress which won the battle as President’s Rule was lifted after the Centre admitted that Harish Rawat won the trust vote held on May 14.
Moments after the decision, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi tweeted,”Hope Modiji learns his lesson-people of this country and the institutions built by our founding fathers will not tolerate the murder of democracy!”
Manipur
Law and order situation in this northeastern state has gone from bad to worse due to road blockade by some Naga groups. The blockade has continued for over 60 days now creating a massive crisis in the state.
The term of 60-member Manipur assembly will come to end on March 18. While the ruling Congress has said it is ready for the polls, the BJP wanted it to be delayed till situation in the state normalises.
Irom Sharmila, who was on a fast for 16 years to demand the repeal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), had recently announced to contest election against CM Okram Ibobi Singh. It will be interesting to see how much support Sharmila, who ended her fast in August, 2016, gets from the voters of the state.