Washington DC: The US is heading for elections this year in November. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are headed for a rematch of the 2020 election where Joe Biden got the better of Donald Trump. American people will elect their next President based on the promises and work done on the ground for the country.
Out of all other aspects Foreign policy is one major aspect that the voters in the US will keep in mind while electing their next President. Let us find out how the foreign policy decisions by Joe Biden will impact his chances in the upcoming US polls.
In 1992, Bill Clinton’s political strategist James Carville quipped that the outcome of US elections was determined by ‘the economy, stupid’. Joe Biden must certainly hope that this remains true because, if so, he would almost certainly be a shoo-in for re-election in 2024 as per Chatham House.
In the US, the jobless rate is at an all-time low. According to a report by Chatham House, wages are rising, the US economy is expanding by roughly 3% every quarter, unemployment is at an all-time low, and the stock market is soaring. In the meantime, it is finally anticipated that interest rates will decline after reaching an all-time high for more than two years. To top it all off, eight of the ten largest companies in the world at the moment are headquartered in the United States. According to one pundit, the US would be winning if it were engaged in an economic war with the rest of the globe.
But despite all of these policies, Biden is still behind Trump. But still, a lot can be done and will be done by November. However, the polls may not be a great guide to see how Americans will vote in November when they will have to choose between Biden and Trump.
But if the polls are correct the Biden team has a lot of work to do. A November 2023 poll put Trump ahead in five of the six battleground states (Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, though not Wisconsin), while a February poll conducted by NBC News showed that Biden’s approval rating had dropped to 37 per cent. As per a poll from CBS, 65% of Americans remember the Economy being better under Trump than under Biden.
Among the most popular are Biden’s age and alleged memory loss (something he vehemently denies); his administration’s failure to stem the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States (the number arriving has roughly doubled since 2020); and last by no means least, the fact that even if the Dow Jones is on the up, many ordinary Americans are hurting. A recent CBS poll found that 65 per cent of Americans remember the economy under Trump as being good, but only 38 per cent gave the same positive assessment of the current economy under Biden.
While Biden’s foreign policy may get good approval ratings from both his supporters at home and US allies abroad, especially those worried that Trump should not return to the White House, it isn’t working in favour of the American President. For instance, war in Ukraine Russia is true to say that the majority of Americans stand with Ukraine this war.
Biden’s foreign strategy is facing yet another challenge in the form of China. China is the only nation in the international system with the capacity and the desire to subvert the US-led world order, according to both Biden and Trump. However, the Biden administration has also made the case for the US’s continued engagement with China for several reasons, chief among them being its robust economy.
This approach might make perfect sense to American companies who operate in China and to political realists who see little wrong in working out a way to coexist with another great power. However, in the hurly-burly of American politics where 81% of Republicans, 59% of Independents, and 56% of Democrats view China as a critical threat, it leaves Biden open to attack by the Republican Party for either going soft on China, or worse, appeasing it.
And finally the the Israel-Gaza war. The Biden administration may indeed be working overtime to put a brake on the military policies being pursued by the Netanyahu government and the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). Biden might have even forewarned Israel that the world would no longer back its policies. However, many calling for a ceasefire believe that this is merely window dressing, with no real impact on Gaza, where the humanitarian catastrophe is getting worse.
Of course, if all Americans were on the side of Israel this might not make much of a difference. But Biden’s dilemma is that a good number of Americans, particularly in his party, among the young groups of Arab-Americans, do not back military aid for Israel and wish to see an end to the war now.
As demonstrated by the recent Democratic primary in Michigan, when 100,000 voters cast “uncommitted” ballots in a significant protest against what they perceived to be Biden’s support for Israel’s war campaign, this might have long-term political ramifications. Naturally, this does not automatically equate to backing Trump, who likewise enjoys little support outside of his constituency. But the White House should be worried because the 2020 election was won by fewer than 50,000 votes in three battleground states, most notably Michigan.
What happens in November will have a significant impact on the entire world. On the other hand, the outcome of the race for the White House could also be greatly impacted by developments elsewhere in the world. All that’s left to do is watch and wait.
