Elections down the memory lane

New Delhi: While the sixteenth Lok Sabha elections will be path-breaking, a survey of India’s elections during the last six decades will reveal the way the voters react to personalities, ideologies and issues.

SURGING POLITICAL COMPETITION

The most striking trend in Indian electoral politics is the emergence of competing ideologies. In the 1952 general election – the first held after India won Independence – 55 parties took part, while in 2009, 370 parties entered the fray.

The surge in political competition began in the 1980s, and the number of parties contesting elections jumped from 38 in 1984 to 117 in 1989, a watershed year in Indian politics. It was only the second time since Independence that Congress was ousted from power. 

The 1989 election heralded the end of single-party rule in India and the rise of multiparty coalition government, which is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. This further incentivized the growth of regional parties, whose leaders recognised that they could wield considerable influence in the formation of governments with a relatively small number of seats in Parliament.

Between 1952 and 1984, the Lok Sabha saw on average 19 distinct parties occupying seats on its benches. After 1989, that number has averaged around 33. Following the 2009 election, 37 parties gained representation in Parliament (today, that stands at 39).
 

DECLINING MARGIN OF VICTORY

As the number of parties seeking – and winning – representation in Parliament has steadily increased, so has the closeness of elections. The average margin of victory in a parliamentary constituency between 1962 and 2009 has decreased over time. From 1962 to 1977, elections in India actually became less competitive, with the average margin of victory in a constituency growing from nearly 15% in 1962 to 26% in 1977. Since 1977, however, the average margin of victory has come down substantially: in 2009, it registered at 9.7%, the thinnest margin since Independence.

VOTES DON’T ALWAYS MEAN SEATS
Although the number of players in elections has grown exponentially, the vote share of Congress, BJP, and the total of the remaining parties is actually in relative equilibrium.

In 1996, Congress earned slightly less than 29% of the vote, while BJP and smaller regional parties won 20 and 51%, respectively. There have been modest fluctuations in votes in the intervening elections, the shifts in vote shares over the past two decades have not been dramatic.

In 2009, Congress won 28.5% of the vote; this was almost identical to its showing in both 1996 and 1999. BJP’s vote share peaked in 1998, when it took home 25.6% of the vote. Since then, its vote share has declined slightly to 19%, down a little over one percentage point from its 1996 tally. The other parties held 51% of the vote in 1996 and 52.5% of the vote in 2009.

THE VOTER TURNOUT

The voter turnout in the national elections has grown at a relatively modest clip over the years. In 1962, overall turnout stood at 55.5%, while in the 2009 election the number was 59.4%. This rate has fluctuated within a relatively defined band, from a low of 55.2% in 1971 to 64.1% in 1984.

However, looking at average turnout rates, as with almost any statistic regarding national politics, masks a great deal of variation at the state level.