US job growth faltered in September and the labor market weakened across the board, official data showed Friday, raising concerns about the economy’s resilience to the global slowdown.
The weak jobs report also cast doubt on the Federal Reserve plan to raise zero-level interest rates this year, with the data suggesting the economy may be too weak to weather a tightening of credit.
The Labor Department reported employers added a disappointing 142,000 jobs in September, well below analyst estimates of 205,000.
The already tepid August jobs level of 173,000 was revised sharply lower to 136,000, surprising analysts who had anticipated a large upward revision which is typical for that month.
The July number also was lowered, bringing the average for the past three months to 167,000 jobs, lagging behind the 200,000-plus growth trend seen earlier in the year and in 2014.
Just a month ago, the average had been 221,000, showing resilience to the turmoil triggered by China’s shock currency devaluation in mid-August.
“Two months of weak payroll gains suggest that the mighty US jobs machine may be losing some steam,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.
The jobs report gave a downbeat picture of the labor market as the Federal Reserve considers its first interest rate hike since 2006. It suggested the economy was being impacted by concerns about the slowing global economy, which is hurting exports and manufacturing, and China-driven market turmoil, analysts said.
At the September policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank left the benchmark federal funds rate at the zero level, where it has been pegged since 2008 to support the recovery from the Great Recession.
The Fed has planned the liftoff for this year, and Fed chief Janet Yellen said as recently as last week that the timetable remained on track. The FOMC has two meetings left this year, in late October and mid-December.
“In retrospect, the decision by the Fed to hold fire seems like a good one. There has been a downshift in jobs growth and wage inflation remains very low. The earlier rationale for raising rates has now lost some validity,” Behravesh said.
Harm Bandholz, chief US economist at Unicredit, said the “employment report has most likely removed even the last small chance for a rate hike as early as this month.”
In a statement, the White House said: “The economy added jobs in September at a pace below that seen earlier in the year, as slowing growth abroad and global financial turmoil have weighed on economic activity.”
– Dismal data –
The numbers were overwhelmingly bad, revealing weaknesses that the Fed views as signals of slack in the jobs market.
The unemployment rate, measuring those without work but actively seeking jobs, held unchanged as expected at 5.1 percent, the lowest level since 2008.
The labor force participation rate, already extremely low, weakened further to 62.4 percent from the 62.6 percent of the prior three months.
“Adding to the negative tone of today’s report is the fact that the 0.2 percentage point drop in the participation rate to a 38-year low did not spur a further decline in the unemployment rate,” Unicredit’s Bandholz said.
The number of unemployed people also was little changed at 7.9 million.
Muted wage growth, an indicator of weak hiring demand, slowed. Average hourly earnings fell by one cent to $25.09, following a gain of nine cents in August. The year-over-year change in earnings was a modest 2.2 percent. The average workweek dropped by an hour.
Wall Street stocks tumbled after the report but pared losses in morning trade, leaving the S&P 500 down 0.6 percent at 1.912.83, less than half of its loss as the markets opened.
“One thing that seems certain in the wake of this report is that the Federal Open Market Committee won’t be raising the target range for the federal funds rate at the October meeting — not unless it wants to kill any and all credibility it has remaining,” said Patrick O’Hare at Briefing.com.