Turkey’s long-dominant Justice and Development Party (AKP) was poised to win back a clear parliamentary majority on Sunday, according to latest results from one of the country’s most critical elections in years.
The party founded by strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had around 51 percent of the vote with more than 80 percent of ballots counted, CNN-Turk television reported.
That would give it 325 seats in the 550-seat parliament, well ahead of its three main rival parties and easily enough to form a government on its own.
Opinion polls had predicted a replay of the June election when the AKP won just 40 percent of the vote and lost its majority for the first time in 13 years.
Turks voted in large numbers, with the country deeply polarised in the face of the renewed Kurdish violence and a wave of bloody jihadist attacks along with mounting concerns about democracy and the faltering economy.
If confirmed, the result would be a significant victory for 61-year-old Erdogan, who is hoping to expand his powers as president and continues to play a dominant role in Turkish politics.
During the election campaign, Erdogan said only he and his loyal Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu could guarantee security, criss-crossing the country with the message: “It’s me or chaos.”
A report by the Brookings Institution think-tank had warned that whatever the outcome, “the challenges facing Turkey are growing by the day”.
It highlighted the problems of the Kurdish crisis, the parlous state of the economy and the conflict in neighbouring Syria.
The political landscape has changed dramatically in Turkey since June, with the country even more divided on ethnic and sectarian lines.
– Security concerns –
Many Turks are fearful of a return to all-out war with outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) rebels after fresh violence shattered a 2013 truce in July, just a month after a pro-Kurdish party won seats in parliament for the first time and denied Erdogan’s AKP a majority.
This time round, the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), led by charismatic lawyer Selahattin Demirtas, appeared to lose votes, and it was uncertain if it would break through the 10-percent threshold to stay in parliament.
The vote for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) had fallen to around 11 percent from 16 percent in June, with commentators suggesting its supporters had shifted to the AKP.
The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) had about 23 percent.
The threat of further jihadist violence had overshadowed the poll after a string of attacks blamed on the Islamic State group, including twin suicide bombings on an Ankara peace rally last month that killed 102 people — the bloodiest in Turkey’s modern history.
Around 385,000 police and gendarmes were mobilised nationwide, with security particularly high in the restive Kurdish-majority southeast, where armoured vehicles and police were seen outside polling stations.
There were no major incidents although media reports said police fired tear gas on rivals from the AKP and the HDP brawling in a town near Istanbul.
Fifty-four million people were registered to vote, and there were queues at many polling stations visited by AFP.
– Turkey’s ‘big master’ –
Erdogan, dubbed the “big master” or “Sultan” who has dominated Turkey’s political scene for more than a decade, is revered and reviled in equal measure.
He was hailed in the West for creating what was once regarded as a model Muslim democracy but is now seen as increasingly autocratic.
Opponents fear that if he succeeds in expanding his role into a powerful US-style executive presidency, it would mean fewer checks and balances.
A string of high-profile raids against media groups deemed hostile to Erdogan and the jailing of critical journalists have set alarm bells ringing about the state of democracy in a country that has long aspired to join the European Union (EU).
“We need a change of direction so we can breathe again. Turkey has become ungovernable,” said Ibrahim Yener, 34, as he cast his ballot in Ankara.
– Economic jitters –
Turkey is also struggling with its policy on neighbouring Syria which has left it at odds with its NATO allies, and the burden of more than two million people who have taken refuge from a war well into its fifth year.
After long supporting rebels fighting the Damascus regime, Ankara was cajoled into joining the US-led coalition against the IS group and launched its own “war on terrorism” targeting the jihadists as well as PKK fighters.
Turkey’s economy is also in trouble, with growth slowing sharply from the dizzy heights of five years ago, unemployment rising and the Turkish lira plunging more than 25 percent in value this year.
But the result, if confirmed, will be a public relations victory for Erdogan as he hosts world leaders including US President Barack Obama at the G20 summit on November 15-16.