Monsoon rains will arrive on the country’s southern coast on June 4 and deliver less rain than average this year, a private weather forecaster said on Tuesday, lowering prospects of higher farm and economic growth in the $2.6 trillion economy.
Monsoon rains, the lifeblood for the country’s farm-dependent economy, arrive on the southern tip of Kerala around June 1 and retreat from Rajasthan by September.
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“Onset of monsoon will be around June 4. It seems that initial advancement of monsoon over peninsular India is going to be slow,” said Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency.
The monsoon season delivers about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is key to the success of the farm sector in Asia’s third-biggest economy.
The country is likely to receive 93% rainfall of the long period average (LPA) in 2019, Mr Singh said.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.
The IMD last month forecast average rainfall over the June-September monsoon season.
The weather office will update its forecast in the first week of June.
Central India – which is key in the production of cotton, soybean and corn – could receive 91% rainfall of the LPA, while the eastern and northeastern part of the country is likely to get 92 percent rainfall of LPA, Mr Singh said.
The rice-growing southern peninsula could get 95% rainfall, while northwest India is likely to get 96% rainfall, he said.
India is the world’s biggest producer of cotton and pulses and the second-biggest producer of sugar and rice.