New Delhi: All the major pre-poll surveys point to BJP emerging as the single largest party, but post-poll alliances put Modi at odds. BJP is set to bag 195 seats and NDA 229 seats. It will need 43 more MPs to touch the magical 272 figure, according to NDTV survey.
NDA will have to find allies outside Mulayam’s SP, Nitish’s JD(U), Jayalalithaa’s AIDMK and Mamata’s TMC. Jayalalithaa is set for 27 seats and Mamata 32 seats. This block of four command 78 seats. Tiny parties like JMM, Raj Thackeray’s MNS, Sikkim Democratic Front, Independents and others would account for 14 seats, which Modi could count on.
Modi’s success would depend on breaking the group of four by promising prestige portfolios. After winning the election, the four can afford to ignore their constituencies for a while, though they may be called opportunistic. Public memory being short and the next election years away, that may look the most expedient course.
All would depend on the post-election mood of the nation. If everyone is talking about stability, that’s Modi’s best bet. But if Modi looks vulnerable to threats from regional regrouping, the next prime minister could well be a regional chieftain – perhaps with little national perspective.
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