New York: Water shortages, threatened coral reefs and a potentially active cyclone season are emerging concerns for Pacific island nations as a powerful El Niño develops, with climate projections indicating that the phenomenon could rank among the strongest observed since 1950.
The warning comes as several countries struggle with the effects of prolonged dry spells. Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga reported water shortages between May and October 2026. Forecasts suggest conditions could deteriorate further over the coming months, putting pressure on drinking water supplies and agricultural activities.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has identified significant differences in expected rainfall across the region. While parts of the western Pacific are likely to receive less rain between November 2026 and January 2027, areas around Nauru and eastern Kiribati could experience wetter-than-usual conditions.
The threat extends beyond land. Unusually warm ocean temperatures around eastern Kiribati could trigger severe marine heatwaves, increasing the possibility of coral bleaching through February 2027. Damage to reefs could affect marine biodiversity and fishing-dependent communities.
The upcoming cyclone season, running from November 2026 to April 2027, also warrants attention. Above-normal storm activity is possible in areas near and east of the International Date Line.
The concerns were discussed at the 19th Pacific Islands Climate and Ocean Forum in Port Moresby on October 20–21. The meeting also highlighted dengue outbreaks and other weather-related health challenges across the region.
The WMO expects the El Niño pattern to continue through March-May 2027, making early warnings, water conservation and disaster preparedness critical for vulnerable island populations.
